Why We Use Pending Ratio — and Why It Matters Right Now
A short methodological note on the metric Primpted treats as the cleanest read on real-time market leverage.
When you read a Primpted metro briefing, the underlying signal is almost always the pending-to-active ratio. This note explains why.
What it measures
Pending ratio is the count of listings under contract, divided by the count of listings still active on the market. It captures real-time demand intensity better than absorption rate, days-on-market, or price-reduction share — each of which lags or measures something adjacent.
A ratio of 1.0 means as many listings are going under contract each month as remain available. A ratio of 0.2 means demand is absorbing only a fifth of available supply.
Our thresholds
We use absolute thresholds, not YoY direction:
- Above 0.8: Strong seller's market.
- 0.6 - 0.8: Seller-favored.
- 0.4 - 0.6: Balanced.
- 0.2 - 0.4: Buyer-favored.
- Below 0.2: Strong buyer's market.
Why YoY change misleads
A metro can have a +20% YoY move in pending ratio and still be deeply buyer-favored in absolute terms. Miami in mid-2026 is the clearest current example: the YoY direction is positive, but the absolute reading sits firmly below 0.3. Reporting on direction alone produces the wrong headline.
This is why Primpted commentary always anchors to absolute levels first, with YoY context provided as a secondary lens — never as the framing.
Methodology
Primpted Research combines publicly available housing market data, demographic information, economic indicators, public records, and proprietary analysis to identify housing market trends. Our research incorporates data from sources including Realtor.com® Economic Research, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the U.S. Census Bureau, and other public datasets, together with Primpted's own methodology.
The Pending Ratio measures the relationship between homes under contract and homes actively listed for sale, providing an indicator of current buyer demand.
The Sold Score is Primpted's proprietary market strength indicator. It combines multiple housing market signals—including pending activity, inventory trends, days on market, and price reductions—to estimate the relative strength of seller conditions within a local market.