Where Phoenix Homes Still Sell Fast as the Metro Cools

The Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler metropolitan area remains in a Cooling market category. With a median listing price of $498,000, representing a 5.14% year-over-year decline, and active inventory dipping by 4.08%, the market is navigating a period of adjustment. However, a deeper dive into the data reveals compelling stories of local resilience and accelerated sales in specific areas, defying the broader trend of a moderating market.

Local Hot Pockets Emerge

While the overall Pending Ratio for Phoenix stands at 0.4055, indicating a balanced, if somewhat slowing, absorption of inventory, several zip codes are significantly outperforming this metric. These areas showcase strong buyer demand and a substantially higher likelihood of a quick sale, reflected in a high Sold Score.

Notably, three zip codes stand out for their strong buyer activity:

85035 Phoenix, AZ*: With a median listing price of $339,000 (down 3.1% YoY) and a pending ratio of 0.82, this area shows exceptionally high demand. Inventory is also down significantly, by 21.6% year-over-year, to just 40 active listings.

85019 Phoenix, AZ*: This zip code has a median listing price of $354,950 (down 3.4% YoY) and a pending ratio of 0.74. Active listings here have also seen a substantial year-over-year decrease of 28.3%, to 38 listings, underscoring strong competition among buyers.

85120 Apache Junction, AZ*: Despite a 5.2% year-over-year increase in its median listing price to $410,000, this area maintains a strong pending ratio of 0.73. Inventory has risen by 39.0% year-over-year to 107 listings, yet demand remains robust.

These neighborhoods demonstrate that even in a cooling market, specific micro-markets can exhibit significant strength. In these areas, sellers hold considerable leverage, and properties are moving quickly.

Inventory Dynamics and Price Discipline

Metro-wide, active listing count is down by 4.08% year-over-year, settling at 19,514. Conversely, new listings have seen a robust 9.47% increase year-over-year, suggesting more sellers are testing the market. However, with the median days on market (DOM) now at 60 (up 3.45% YoY), and the overall Pending Ratio showing a slight year-over-year decline of 0.4%, the increased supply isn't being absorbed as quickly as in previous periods.

The price reduction share at 28.21% is down 3.1% year-over-year, which could indicate that sellers are increasingly pricing their homes more realistically upfront, or that a segment of sellers remains optimistic about their property's value despite market indicators.

Pace and Demand

While the overall median DOM has risen, the swift movement of properties in the hottest zip codes contrasts sharply with areas experiencing slower activity. For instance, the luxury markets of 85003 Phoenix (median DOM 85 days, pending ratio 0.15) and 85253 Paradise Valley (median DOM 93 days, pending ratio 0.17) indicate much longer market times and significantly less buyer urgency.

The average listing price of $849,438 remains substantially higher than the median listing price, further highlighting the divergence between the luxury segment and the broader market. This suggests that while mid-range homes in desirable pockets are moving, higher-priced properties face more pressure.

Outlook

The Phoenix market continues to calibrate. While the aggregate data points to a Cooling market category, the granular view reveals highly localized dynamics. We anticipate continued divergence in market conditions across the metro, with well-priced homes in high-demand areas retaining their competitive edge, while other segments may require greater price flexibility from sellers.