Market Intelligence Report — CA-900

Merced, CA

Monthly housing intelligence, market trends, and trusted local expertise.

Ref. No: 2026-CA-08
As of the latest 2026 data
Accelerated

Median Listing

$452K
+0.6% YoY

Pending Ratio

0.51
+8.1% YoY

Active Inventory

448
-9.5% YoY

Median DOM

57 Days
-2.6% YoY

Primary Intelligence Tool — Sold Score™

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The Merced market is experiencing an accelerated pace, evidenced by a pending ratio of 0.51 and a year-over-year increase in active listings of -9.5%. Demand is outpacing inventory, with pending listings showing strong absorption relative to available supply.

Local Market Signals

Source: FRED (St. Louis Fed)

Local economic trends can influence how quickly homes sell and how much competition sellers may face.

Job Market

9.1%-1.0 pp YoY

Unemployment rate · Jul 2026

Shows whether local employment conditions are supporting buyer demand.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED (St. Louis Fed).

Population & Migration

297,260+0.2% YoY

Resident population · Jan 2025

Shows whether the area is gaining or losing potential housing demand.

U.S. Census Bureau via FRED (St. Louis Fed).

Future Housing Supply

Data not yet available.

Shows whether future inventory pressure may increase.

Market Analysis

What's moving the Merced market right now.

Active listings have contracted by 9.5% over the past year, while new listings saw a 6.3% increase, indicating some renewed supply entering the market. The median listing price has shown modest appreciation, with a 0.6% increase year-over-year, and median days on market have slightly decreased by 2.6% over the same period, suggesting properties are moving more quickly. The pending ratio has increased by 8.1% year-over-year, indicating an acceleration in demand absorption.

Historical Analysis

Market Trends

Median Price

$452K+0.2% MoM

Active Inventory

448-9.5% YoY

Days on Market

57-2.6% YoY

Sold Score™

72+8.1% YoY

Sold Score™ Over Time

Market liquidity index • 36 months

72
Sep 23Aug 26

Price & Days on Market

Median listing vs market velocity

Price DOM
Sep 23Aug 26

Inventory Dynamics

Total active listings vs new monthly supply

Active New listings
Sep 23Apr 24Nov 24Jun 25Jan 26Aug 26

Sourced from Realtor.com RDC Inventory Core Metrics, supplemented by the Primpted research desk. Updated As of the latest 2026 data.

Market Signals & Indicators

Negotiating Leverage

The contracting inventory of active listings and the rising pending ratio suggest increasing competition for available properties. This environment implies a faster pace of transactions, with less inventory pressure and a reduced timeframe for price discovery. Sellers may experience greater leverage in negotiations, though pricing discipline remains important.

Luxury Segment

The average listing price increased by 5.9% year-over-year, while the median price increased by 0.6% and median $/sqft declined by 0.7% over the past year. This divergence, alongside a relatively stable median square footage, suggests some softening at the higher price tiers despite overall market acceleration.

Supply Dynamics

448 active listings represent the current floor, with new supply arriving at roughly 204 per month.

Pricing Pressure
15.9%

of active listings carry a price reduction, -3.5% from prior period.

$/Sq Ft
$0K

Median price per square foot has moved -0.7% year-over-year.

Absorption
0.51

Pending-to-active ratio — Accelerated.

Recommended For This Market

Accelerated

Selling in Merced, CA? Buyer Demand Index is running at 51%.

Merced, CA is sitting near equilibrium. Preparation, pricing and timing decide whether a listing sells fast or lingers.

Buyer Demand Index
51%
Median Days on Market
57 days
Inventory YoY
−9%

Merced, CA is balanced, so preparation decides the outcome. Your Sold Score shows where you stand today.

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Metro Demographics

Metro Area
Merced, CA
CBSA Code
32900
State
CA
Analysis FAQ
  • What is the current market condition in Merced?+

    As of the latest 2026 data, the Merced metro is classified as Accelerated. Pending ratio is 0.51 with median days on market at 57.

  • Are home prices dropping in Merced?+

    Median listing price is $452K, +0.6% year over year. 15.9% of active listings carry a price reduction.

  • How fast are homes selling in Merced?+

    The typical listing sits 57 days on market, a -2.6% change YoY. New listings are arriving at 204 per month.

  • What's happening in the Merced luxury market?+

    The average listing price increased by 5.9% year-over-year, while the median price increased by 0.6% and median $/sqft declined by 0.7% over the past year. This divergence, alongside a relatively stable median square footage, suggests some softening at the higher price tiers despite overall market acceleration.

  • Where can I find a trusted Merced real estate expert?+

    Primpted maintains a vetted registry of Merced agents with verified credentials, Google reviews, and neighborhood specialization. See the Featured Experts section above.

Data & Methodology

Primary data sourced via Realtor.com's RDC Inventory Core Metrics (CBSA-level), supplemented by editorial analysis and the Primpted local expert registry. Historical trends calculated on a rolling 12-month basis. Past direction is not a forecast.

As of the latest 2026 data · CBSA 32900 · 36mo history